Showing posts with label Infomatics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Infomatics. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

American's Shop till they drop: Record Thanksgiving Sales for 2011

In my Earlier blog Exagerrated Poverty Levels in the USA, I was mentioning how the American media was projecting the state of affairs of US economy and particularly the poverty levels. While there are cries over increasing poverty, falling salaries, increasing unemployment numbers a surprising and contradictory scenario emerged from the Thanksgiving sales.
Thanksgiving apart from being an American tradition is the most happening Sales season in the US, where the retailers and consumers across the country and from neighboring countries get into a shopping frenzy.
What's rattling are the emerging numbers from the National Retail Federation (NRF), USA. NRF reported that estimated sales of $52.4 billion during the four-day weekend, up from $45 billion last year. With 9% unemployment numbers and $15 trillion in debt, this is rather surprising figures. The consumer spend continues and no conservatism seems to ever return. Whatever the news of bad economy and recession are the spending in the holiday season has not on held on but also rose year on year.
The retailers make about 20% of the revenue over the Thanksgiving weekend sales which typically lasts 4 days.

Annual revenue earned by Indian I.T. which is estimated $88 billion in revenue in 2011 according to Indian I.T. trade group, NASSCOM looks like a ridiculous figure comparing what the retailers make in an year which is around $500 Billion. One could imagine how deep the consumerism in the US is and how it drives the debt, prices and costing skyward.The same spending can not only eradicate poverty and hunger in the US but the world over !!!!
 

A few observations
  1. Exceedingly heavy promotions this year, couple with staggered store openning times drew more consumers. More stores participate and many opened at midnight or even earlier - during Thanksgiving Thursday - rather than waiting until 5 or 6 a.m. as they used to.This added shopping hours in peak season mean that year-on-year comparisons will be skewed. For example Walmart opened it stores at 10pm instead of 12am Kohls and Target opened early at 12am. Many retailers followed this suite. For myself I had my own road map based on store openings. There were beelines everywhere huge huge lines. Even the afternoon sales at North Face and Coach outlets had a line for getting into to the store and billing. North face we stood in entry line for 30minutes and another 55 minutes for billing. 
  2. What was ironic was most of the Apparel and few regular consumables have been marked up by atleast 15% in comparison to last year.Add inflationary measures the cost of merchandise has actually increased. Am pretty sure that the basket size of shopper definitely shrunk this year compared to earlier years.
  3. Thirdly the hardships of 2008 seems to be taken care as of today, as many consumers either got of debt or reduced their debt or refinanced it better. With worse off shoppers did manage to indulge in some impulsive buying suppressed previously.
  4. To sum it up the observed human condition behind the supposedly bullish Thanksgiving weekend sales indicates a bearish consumer mindset. Even though small-scale personal anecdotal experience is rarely cause for significant investment action, the nature of the encounter serves to reinforce my belief that the so called bullish Black Friday sales numbers were borne out of both consumer and seller desperation rather than some sort of resurgent confidence.
Behind the Statistics of NRF, ShopperTrak
Here is the survey method from NRF.
The survey, conducted Nov. 24-26 by BIGresearch for NRF, polled 3,826 consumers and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.6%.* NRF’s definition of “Black Friday weekend” includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projected spending for Sunday. The survey estimates number of shoppers, not number of people. 
 
For a person like me who had been working with statistics for a major part of my career can say the sample set is rather misleading and too unrepresentative of the actual population. The numbers given out by NRF are sample projection to a population and not actual numbers by any means. There is a significant error factor in the same. More so going by the Thanksgiving numbers it is highly improbable to predict how the rest of the holiday season which is to follow will pan out. Dampening, fatigue is never ruled out looking at 2008 numbers.
Secondly the shoppers numbers is actually traffic and not count of people who shopped. In traffic it is again an estimate of people who went to a shop.

Some more Interesting Numbers
$11.4 billion Retail sales on Black Friday alone.
28.7 million Shoppers who visited stores and websites on Thanksgiving Day
37.8 % Spending done online
48.7 % Shoppers went to department stores
37.5% Shoppers went to discount retailers
51.4% Bought clothing and accessories 39.4% Bought electronics 32.6% Bought toys
More than 9,000 People waited outside the Macy’s flagship store in New York City’s Herald Square for a midnight Friday opening
$2Price of waffle irons that set off a frenzy – or a “near-riot” as some have called it – among shoppers at a Walmart near Little Rock, Ark
20 People injured at a Los Angeles area Walmart when a woman eager to buy an Xbox 360 reportedly pepper sprayed her fellow shoppers


Financials
On Black Friday alone, retailers raked in an estimated $11.4 billion, up 6.6% from last year, according to ShopperTrak. It was the biggest year-over-year increase since an 8.3% surge in 2007, and easily surpassed the anemic 0.3% growth rate reported last year. Nationwide, about 227 million shoppers visited stores and websites during the long weekend, up from 212 million last year, the retail federation said. Foot traffic on Black Friday jumped 5.1%, ShopperTrak said.
Spending during the period is closely watched by retailers to gauge how sales might go in the final sprint before the holidays, and is also monitored on Wall Street because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy. The market loves the news flow overall, by close of trading, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 291.23 points (2.59 %), the S&P 500 gained 33.88 points (2.92%).

Friday, November 18, 2011

Exaggerted Poverty levels in the USA

Every now and then the American media cries aloud on how poverty is on a rise in the US and how the government is failing to arrest the same. I find it surprising for the most prosperous nations media's insane cry on poverty rise where both the government and business focus on consumerism and spending as means of economic growth. One fails to understand that spending doesn't mean to spend on unnecessary items and luxury. The context here is seems to be within the developed/Industrial world. The poverty levels are no where comparable to rest of the world.
If a country is getting deep into poverty there should be steps taken by government and public alike to increase savings in view of the tougher times, but he opposite seems to happen here. USA's is building on it debt to finance more and more spending and feed corporate greed and do nothing to stem the financial problems for the long term. No wonder US today has got a debt mounting to 100% of its GDP. Germany's debt accounts to more than 150% of its GDP. Compare that to India which has got only 25% GDP in debt.
About the cartoon: Poverty stricken people all over the world might be starving but the poor fill their diet with cheap fast food like McDonalds. Obesity by poverty and fast food chains is rampant in lower class in the US, while the opposite is true in India. Middle class and effluent communities cherish the American fast foods like the McDonalds, KFCs, Dominos and hence put on weight.
Behind the poverty definitions
Definitions of poverty vary considerably among nations. For example, rich nations generally employ more generous standards of poverty than poor nations.
Dictionary.com - the state or condition of having little or no money, goods, or means of support; condition of being poor.
Standard definition - Significant
material deprivation, an inability to provide a family with adequate nutritious food, reasonable shelter and clothing.
What does poverty in India actually mean? It is difficult for those living in an industrialised country to truly appreciate the level of poverty in our country.
In the West, even those living in poverty can live in well-constructed dwellings, with heating, clean running water, indoor toilet facilities, access to health care, and even a vehicle. But such luxuries are a distant dream for India's poor.
In the US, the poverty level defines a earning threshold of $22,350 (total yearly income) for a family of four. If a family of four falls below this level its considered in poverty.





Statistics

USA - Nearly 46 million in poverty that's 15% of US population (as per US Census Bureau)
India - Nearly 415 million in poverty that's 41% of Indian Population (as per World Bank)
There has been no uniform measure of poverty in India.The Planning Commission of India has accepted the Tendulkar Committee report which says that 37% of people in India live below the poverty line(BPL)

The Arjun Sengupta Report states that 77% of Indians live on less than INR 20 a day (about $0.50 per day).The N.C. Saxena Committee report states that 50% of Indians live below the poverty line.
India has 33% of World's poorest population. India's number of 415 million are more than combined numbers of Africa's 26 poorest countries.


Income Levels of poor
USA - Poverty level for 2011 was set at $22,350 (total yearly income) for a family of four. That's $5587 per person per year. This doesn't take into consideration Social security, unemployment, food stamps and state paid benefits. If one where to consider these benefits most of them are above the threshold.
India - 80% of Indian Population earns less than 2 $ per day. That is less than 750$ per annum if they earn for 365 days. Which is 7 times less than what US follows as its standard.


What do the Poor Own ?
USA - According to data compiled by US government agencies, the typical household considered “poor” by census officials has a car and air conditioning. For entertainment, the household has cable or satellite TV, two color televisions, a DVD player and a VCR. If children (especially boys) are in the home, they have a video game system such as Xbox or PlayStation. In the kitchen, the household has the ordinary conveniences: refrigerator, oven, stove, microwave. Half the poor now have a personal computer. A third have a widescreen TV (plasma or LCD); a quarter have a digital video recorder such as TiVo.




India - In India the poorest are living a life of real deprivation: a large family crowded into a leaky, overcrowded, unsanitary slum-like shelter. In most situation most of the poor might not even have roof when they go to sleep on the hard ground. One can only wonder when was the last time when such person would have had stomach full of food. Life is despair and miserable, with no materialistic possession at all. Government and NGOs alike try to provide Food, Cloth and Shelter as bare minimal, but these efforts are far from reaching the millions and millions.



Hunger

USA - The media cry with alarm that “nearly one in four kids” in the nation are hungry. Again, government data show otherwise. Fully 96 percent of poor parents stated that their children were never hungry at any time during 2009, despite the severity of the recession, according to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

India - It is estimated that about 42.5% of the children in India suffer from malnutrition. The World Bank, citing estimates made by the World Health Organization, states that "About 49 per cent of the world's underweight children, 34 per cent of the world's stunted children and 46 per cent of the world's wasted children, live in India. The child malnutrition rate in India is twice as great as sub-Saharan Africa. Data from The World Bank shows that the percentage of underweight children in sub-Saharan Africa is 24% while India has almost twice the amount at 47%.

Moreover, the malnutrition is not just common among children but about one third of adults in the country also come under the same category with their weight less than the set standard (body mass index- 18.5).

Indian Government says that food subsidy would rise if there was any increase in the number of BPL families. Food subsidy stood at about Rs 720 billion (or $16.5 billion) in 2010. Considering the food shortages and inflation in India things are only to get worse.

An Unequal World

In 1960, the 20% of the world's people who live in the richest countries had 30 times the income of the poorest 20%; by 1995 it was 82 times.

The world's 225 richest people have a combined wealth of over $1million million. Only four per cent of this wealth - $40 billion - would be enough for basic education and healthcare, adequate food and safe water and sanitation for all the world's people.

There is a satire in corporate world saying "We are not here to solve World Hunger". May be its time to think beyond making exotic swaps and derivatives and driving economies into recession by self driven greed of gobbling more and more wealth for what ??

THE GOOD NEWS: in the past 50 years poverty world over has fallen more than in the previous 500. Since 1960 child-death rates have been halved and malnutrition has declined by a third. Developing countries have covered as much distance in human development during the past 30 years as the industrial world managed in over 100.
THE BAD NEWS: one in four of the world's people still live in severe poverty. It's worse for women than for men; and for black people than for white. Even in the so-called 'rich' world increasing numbers of people do not have enough to live on.

US needs to ask itself in retrospective....
1) Were you aware of the growing gap between the rich and the poor? May be

2) Why do you think the U.S. has higher income inequality than other industrialized countries? Capitalism

3) Why do you think the U.S. has some of the highest poverty rates among industrialized countries? Overspending

For the US, it's time to focus on human development and raising the standard of living by cutting down the disproportionate wealth between the rich and the poor. Cutting down on spending defense (rather offense) expenditure for all the conflicts they get into around the world. As for the general public it would be more of indulging in conservatism and moderation while trying to let go off unwanted fashion, luxury and fad. On the hind-sight obsession with alcohol, tobacco and other in-toxicants also needs to go.

Regrettably, however, most discussions of poverty in the U.S. are riddled with exaggeration and misinformation. Effective anti-poverty policy must be based on an accurate assessment of actual living conditions and the long-term causes of real deprivation—especially the collapse of marriage and erosion of the work ethic. Does any media houses in the US understand and even remotely interested in this. May its time not to just boost ratings by giving exaggerated numbers of their own country while rest of the world suffers on misdeeds, over consumption and greed of a few. Wake up nation.

Credits - Poverty: Dimantling myths, "How poverty is calculated in India" on rediff.com, Wikipedia and Robert Rector in Real Clear Politics

Friday, October 21, 2011

Another dictator down!!!

It's been 36 hours or so since Muammar Gaddafi was gunned and brutally killed by his own country men. American TV and Indian TV cloning the American news channels flood the news on the death of hard lined dictator. It was 7am or so for me watching the news saying Gaddafi was captured alive and in 15 minutes news quotes he is killed. Today morning while checking the videos I soon realise the brutality with which he was killed. Hiding after a air attack in his home town, Gaddafi crawled back into rain drain hole under the road. Only to be discovered and pulled out and shot in his legs to prevent him from running. As it wasn't sufficient, he gets paraded in his home town for almost an hour on a truck with fighters round him. After a while an already exhausted ex-leader is pulled down and executed by a shot in the head.
American government publicly announces this and appalling the fighters and claiming Libya is liberated. Today morning I woke up to search who Gaddafi was and why was he such a criminal in eyes of Western nations that they choose to train guns on him.
Born in 1942 trained in the Libyan military he rose ranks to lead the uprising against the monarchy and the King of Libya in 1969. What followed was a military rule of Socialist nature, nationalising most of the oil companies and threatening others in the process. He also closed the British, American and French military bases in Libya. During the last 40 years what has been recorded economically is far more surprising than many Westerners will even want to believe. In the Sub-Saharan African continent where there are civil wars, War lords, blood diamonds and no leader ever cared for the welfare of the people. This small country maintained and achieved 100% education, had a per capita GDP of 16,000 USD, while the rest of Africa had an average of 1,000 USD; the next closest I believe is small country of Botswana which had 6000 USD. Mandela after being liberated is seen meeting and thanking Gaddafi for his support.
If this is the legend of a this person why was he a rogue. Just because he had guts to sniff out the capitalists long term intent of plundering the nation's resources and being exploited ? He sure had balls to stand out strong against the capitalist interest, and resist being enslaved and being turned into another pawn of NATO.
I don't know what the acquisitions against him are. A bombing in German bar, blowing up of a Pan America flight, a British person killed in its embassy. I don't know what the proofs linked him to direct atrocities cited above. When I look at the biggest and strongest US Anti-Terror Ally Pakistan, their government through ISI has infinite links with various militant organisations all over, who have kidnapped, captured and killed American soldiers and civilians equally. But still because Pakistan is an ally USA turns a blind eye. Pakistan doesn't have resources but is strategic against China or India or even the middle east, so it can get away with it. More so Pakistan has been under dictatorship which sold / leaked WMD and small arms to many rogue nations.
Gaddafi was seen at the UN and I was shocked at his daring speech, which spoke more truth than lies, he was shaking hands with Tony Blair and may western diplomats. I mean why didn't the nations arrest him for the crimes he was accused when he came out. His son was seen meeting Hilary Clinton to improve the relations with the USA, but they turned their backs against him supporting and sponsoring an uprising by some rebels in the country.
What did the countries like USA, UK and France sponsor and mingle in affairs outside their own sovereignty. The unrest ensured Gaddafi and his government take a hard stance against the rebels. You don't expect the government to fight armed rebellion to be put down by a Taser Gun or a shock Baton. The suppression of the rebels to culture peace is opposed by the Western Allies by accusing them of suppressing freedom and human rights violation. (I couldn't find any report of violations before 2009) they through the UN impose a No Fly zone against the Libyan sovereign government. While NATO and US using the drones bombed the front lines killings soldiers and civilians alike weakening the Government forces. NATO never cared about Civil rights violations in Rwanda, Congo or Somalia coz there is nothing to plunder, but for Libya Syria, Yemen, Iran and Iraq there is no escape from the greedy capitalist western world. CIA, under cover operatives do the same things as the Pakistan ISI and its militant outfits try to do bring political instability, and bring down governments to their knees. Enslave them without the physical brutality of it. What these countries end up once they are done with their oil reserves is desert and lots of closed American fast food chains and products in their country which again would have eaten into the consumer taste locally. Strange vicious cycle, you export oil at cheap rate to the US, get back tons of Americans to establish shop on pretext of globalisation (now does one needs coke or McD to be healthy is another debate or even get an Apple iPhone) consume and reap consumerism wave, make profits and take back the same (oil)money back home. All the way its clear who is the winner, and who the looser is. Gaddafi never had nothing to gain from this.
On the flip side if the sentiment against him was so bad, he should have atleast tried to trigger a democratic process and tried to get the sense of what the ground reality was. As a smart ruler he should have sniffed out what ever was best in the long term interest of the country and taken constructive steps in the that direction.
May be its also time that the democratic regime of the world realise that democracy is not always the solution, but more of money-wasting force where the power rotates between a select few who through corrupt means loot and increase the gap between the rich and poor. Every time a new group comes to power their main intent is to maximize their motive of filling in their pockets and of their well wishers who sponsored their elections. The cycle of looting goes unabated, relentlessly pushing the economies to brink of collapse with a elite few controlling the maximum of funds. Be it India, or be it the USA this is happening if one agrees or choice to turn a blind eye to it.

On the flip side if the sentiment against him was so bad, he should have atleast tried to trigger a democratic process and tried to get the sense of what the ground reality was. As a smart ruler he should have sniffed out what ever was best in the long term interest of the country and taken constructive steps in the that direction.

I wonder when the capitalist greed would come to an end, I wonder when would one country stop poking its nose into affairs of sovereign republics, I wish there is a better solution and better place of all this.

Last words of Gaddafi pleading to his tormentors " What you are doing is wrong.... Do you know right from wrong?" and the voice was silenced for ever!!! No more gutsy speeches in the UN no more nightmares for capitalist barons. Do we know the real evil that is happening driven by this baseless greed on natural resources of an alien country. Bizarre!!!

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Successful Telangana Agitiation

As I write this blog the "Sakala Janula Samme" or "The All People Agitiation" successfully completes it 1 month. No where you would here that an agitation of this proportions has entered 1 month and the Government choosing not to act on it while it waits for the agitation to wane out and fatigue out.
The Present Congress government is to be blamed for all of these short comings starting in 2001 when YSR agreed with then TRS leader to bifurcate the state and later in the December of 2009 where Chidambaram followed up with his midnight act of declaring the initiation of the process. Gross mishandling of the movement has brought in unprecedented sequence of events and circumstances which will prove to be more of a migraine than a headache that can be easily be done away with.
In the current times where world over hoards of public agony and frustration is pouring out against governments and world leaders around the world, our own government in power is trying to pretend that it is infact ruling the country. The ever mounting corruption charges being unearthed every day, the CAG reports, the Anna Hazare agitations, and battle against inflationary micro economics and ever looming threat in the fragile world economy has got all the possible daggers against it.
Inspite of all this there is negligible amount of crisis handling or even a light will to tackle these scenarios. At best Congress is trying its level best to be alive and ensure it makes a comeback in 2014 elections.
While the Telangana agitation continues to cripple lives of crores of people not just across the state but also in the neighbouring states. Farmers and daily wage labourers are sure suffering along with common man who struggles to go to work and who is as well unable to send their kids to schools which are shut down. It makes one wonder whether this is a justified cause with people in all walks of life suffering. Government neither moves against or infavor and continues its diplomacy and trying to mend the situation in a pro-congress mode than pro-people mode.
The Telangana agitation has been successful if not hugely successful in camflauging and diverting the huge huge short comings in the governance and corruption that has been happening by the same Telengana leaders who have for years turned a blind eye and piled up huge cash reserves. If it was not for the local leaders and if it was not for their continued coldness there would have been enough of voices and concerns being raised initially and corrective improvements taken up. Instead after all the plunder they realise that their is a way to regather public sympathy and lost trust on a whole and sole agenda of separation. This incidentally has to be fuelled by provocative and hatred entrenched stories and words. In a country which thrives on "Unity in diversity " these politician are successful enough in sewing a thick fabric of regional difference and divide to differentiate and diversify themselves. If this is the way we want to be lead to we are still being ignorant and foolish enough to be lead into the same traps which we always have been.
What surprises me is that the main political party which is leading this agitation has got most of its family members in its political cadre to run the activities, while the leader claims he will be a watch dog to the CM seat; but he will be a watch dog preventing any other one from taking over the seat as well. While he makes ridiculous statements of making a Dalit as a CM, he doesn't have even one Dalit leader either at a District level or at a Mandal level, so it is to be seen where that Dalit puppet candidate will be picked from.
Secondly they where indications to give two districts of Rayalaseema to Telengana. I say why only two; lets give Telangana all the districts in the state, make Hyderabad its capital. So they get Telangana and as a bonus they also get other districts of the state and not just 2 districts.
Jai Telangana !!!

Friday, May 15, 2009

List of Telugu Channels

As I was trying to cut across some time, I picked up the task of analysing the current Telugu TV media space. Interestingly I found a micro India kind of presence in terms of channels that are floating around the airways. The Sun TV run Gemini TV with its 6 sister Channels are the leader of the pack; Gemini has dethroned the innovator in TV media Eenadu Television run by Suman son of Media baron Ramoji Rao. The reputation of ETV has lost due to possibly tasteless emphasis and portrayal of Suman's own taste didn't convert into viewers taste. While ETV couldn't capitalise on its journalistic base and span; lots of channels proped up as its competitors in the Current affairs and News section. While TV9 continues to top this segment, ETV2 follows it as its competitor. ETV also failed to launch new segments and penetrate deeper into the growing viewer base and lost its viewership to competitors like Gemini and new entrants like Zee and Maa TV. Lack of innovation, creative thinking has lead to an erosion and gradually lead to fragmentation of the Telugu Media.
New segments are being formed and creating a niche for themselves while current segments as the General Entertainment sections is getting highly commoditised.
While the 2009 Parliamentary and Assembly elections added an entire new equation of Politics driven media with launch of Sakshi, and likes of Studio N and Mahaa TV; its to be seen if an Tamilnadu like segmentation on politics backed and driven media channels emerge and make a foot holding.
Comedy Channel - 1
Children Channels - 1 (Excludes Jetix, Disney TV)
Movie Channels - 1
Music Channels - 2
Devotional Channels - 2 (excludes Missionary Channels)
General Entertainment - 11
News - 10
Social Channels - 2

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Intellectually onto the Political Expressway...

Freedom Fighters, Patriots, Socialists, Nationalists, joined the political stream and formed the part of formative political horizon; Followed by seasoned Criminals, Opportunists like Liquor Barons, Business Tycoons, and other similar socio-political classes. In small parts the main stream politics still managed to pull into their fold Engineers, Doctors, Economists, Scholars. Though there has been a presence of intellectuals in politics their voice seems to be always softened by the other lot. The Presence of few intellectuals up the chain failed to attract the educated to the seemingly non-glamours, corruption tarnished Political Scenario of the country.
Their seems to be a silent and seemingly interesting transformation in the country. The current generation, though its a minutely small fraction seem to be shoving off the Taboo related to politics and entering mainstream politics; Some Have even taken a step ahead to start off their own Political parties.

Reflecting a emerging trend, one student from IIM-Calcutta is all geared-up to in NDA Prime Ministerial-candidate L K Advani's campaign office this 2009 elections. Another from IIM-Ahmedabad has ambitions of interning with Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi. Ranjan Choudhary of IIM-Calcutta left a plush office and well-paying corporate job in Australia to plunge into the heat and dust of the Indian political arena. While Choudhary joined the Congress party in May 2004 worked with Rahul Gandhi, as a Political Strategist/Analyst. Choudhary joined BJP as he felt the party was not as focussed on youth as presummed to be. The trend could be traced back to Chepuri Krishna who started the trend of IIM students interning with political parties. A student of IIM-A, Chepuri inspired by CPM leader Sitaram Yechury's guest lecture as part of a course on the ‘Indian Social and Political Environment’. went on to intern with the CPM's central office in 2008 and produced a paper on the ‘unorganised workforce in the country’.

While studying, analysing and strategising Political scenarios is one level, entering and fighting it out in the open Political ground is altogether a different level. Emergence of intellectually strengthen and supported parties is a new outcome.

Bharatiya Punarnirman Dal
Formed in December 2006 by alumni of two of India's renowned educational institutions, the Indian Institutes of Management and the Indian Institutes of Technology (IIMs and IITs) with the objective of making “Bharathvarsha a prosperous and powerful nation and re-establish it as the world-leader, a position, which the nation rightfully deserves”.The party is contesting about 40 Lok Sabha Seats under the banner of the Bharatiya Punarnirman Dal (BPD).

Lok Paritran
Paritrana meaning "To bring relief from the cause of distress" in Sanskrit, is a political party. The party was formed in February 2006 by a group of six graduates from IIT Bombay and IIT Kanpur. Lok Paritran was the brainchild of Shri. Chandrashekhar,an Alumnus from IIT Kanpur.

Lok Satta
Perhaps the strongest, oldest Politcal party is the Lok Satta Party from Andhra Pradesh. It's the brain child of Dr.Jaya Prakash Narayan (blog), a former Physician and Civil Servant (IAS Officer) who has quietly built a new political party Lok Satta with a clear motto - new politics for a new generation. Dr. JP Narayan joined the Indian Administrative Service in 1980 in the aftermath of Emergency and the failure of the Janata Experiment. During his nearly 17 years of distinguished public service in various capacities, he acquired a formidable reputation in the State of Andhra Pradesh. Lok Satta the political party is a direct offshoot of Lok Satta Movement which has grass roots from Andhra Pradesh with over 2,50,000 members in it. The Lok Satta Movement was an NGO aimed at creating a suitable environment to realise maximum positive potential through comprehensive reforms in the Indian governance and establish citizen-centered, democratic governance. For the 249 Legislative Assembly seats that the party is contesting, it has nominated 88 BCs, 42 SCs, 15 STs, 10 minorities, 28 women and 1 physically challenged candidate; while its contesting in all 42 seats for the Lok Sabha.

Unlike the former situation the silent revolution has already started, though in its nascence it is slowly but surely becoming stronger by a day. Inspite of parties trying their heart out for change and the candidates not going for costly advertisements which are cleverly camouflaged as news or that sections of the print media chose to virtually black out the party from their columns these political organisation continue to inspire and make indentation into the politics.

Voters should realise that they are the architects of their own destiny and that every vote counts and should not succumb to the poisonous propaganda that a vote to these parties would go waste.
With Vote India, Jago Re and several ways in which the younger generation is taking active interest, I do hope Indian Politics will change, and change for the better and more would be driven by the intellectual crowd.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

Politically Misinclined !!!

In a couple of days some part of the country and the Andhra Pradesh State would go to elections. The first phase of elections kicks off on April 16th 2009.

AP would have coupled it assembly and Parliamentary elections this year owing to early dissolution of the state assembly 5 years back during the reign of N.Chandra Babu Naidu.

Things have dramatically changed since then. Towards end of Chandra Babu's term in 2004, there was droughts in the state causing a serious setback to developmental and in effect the popularity of Chandra Babu Naidu and lots of hostility by the severely suppressed and now eradicated Naxal/Maoist groups. Brewing popularity of Telengana sentiment ensured that Telugu Desam Party had its final blow giving a landslide victory to Congress, TRS combine under Dr.Y.S.Raja Shekhar Reddy.

In the last 5 years Telengana sentiment has taken a backseat, and TRS failed miserably while internally TDP lost more than half of its cadre owing to quitting of Devender Goud and emerging of Praja Rajyam under Chiranjeevi. What's left of TDP today looks more of empty vessel making lots of noise in terms of doling out innumerable social benefits which sound unrealistic, unasked and biased.

Schemes like Cash-exchange scheme, TV scheme which have mass appeal but eventually are luring people to vote for them in return for nothing. Schemes like a house for 1 Lakh, provision of land to the poor, reclaiming of area handed over to private owners for mining back to people are all on the cards of TDP. The party is hardly promising anything on growth, but is promising on returning the fruits of growth they sowed during their 9-year long tenure. TDP a very forward approached and growth focused party deteriorating to these cheap gimmicks is totally disheartening and shows extreme levels of desperation.

While the Congress has been in power from 2004-2009 there has been immense growth in the revenues for the state. Drought has ended, famers are happy, government was riding the global economic and financial boom without any caution. They sold/auctioned lands/properties/mines/minerals/sand and almost everything they can derive value from. Diversion of land rights for forests, bauxite & iron ores, coal, cement, sand where all calmly been sold to private players. While the CM YS RajaShekar Reddy claimed less than 30 Lakhs as assets owned by himself and in his family through an affidavit in 2004 has now crossed over 10,000 Crores as of 2009 comprising of holdings in Raghuram Cements, Jagruti Publications and over a half a dozen Power Plants across the country. Just a trivia for AP it took 50 Years to produce 12500 M watts of power from 213 MW in 1960s. YSR owned Athena Energy plans to generate 14000 M watts in 7 years more than any private player (Tata Power, Reliance Energy, GVK). In Raghuram cements YS Jagan's shares where worth 45 crores when bought after renaming it as Bharti Cements its worth 6500 crores.
List
Jagathi Publication (Sakshi Paper, Sakshi News Channel, Indira TV) - 3500 Crores
Sandur Power - 1000 Crores
Raghu Ram Cement - 6500 Crores
Athena Energy - 50,000 + Crores
Forest Plantation Ltd
Saraswathi Power & Industries
Pullivendula Polymers
Silicon Builders, Classic Reality, Caramel Asia Holding, Bhagavath Sannidhi Estates, Silicon Infrastructures
Janani Infra Structure.

The above list is not exhaustive and used to siphon in the corrupt black money into legal tender and pay heavy dividends to the share holders/promoters. Also companies like Asian Infra aid in achieving the money laundering channels and Tax havens for the family. Athena Infra holds most of the converted corrupt money routed through the hawala route through Asian Infra to East Coast Energy or Matrix G2/Sainz Hydro projects.

People are unaware at the level of corrupt ways of the people in power. The ever smiling CM I feel reflects a very averse and carenot attitude when he gives a wicked smile when asked to clarify on the same in the media be it Devils Advocate on CNBC or on NDTV or TV9. He brushes off all allegations made against him by the opposition with same wicked and arrogant smile. He is so extremely confident and God-like stature makes him feel invincible.

The party once famous for internal groupisms is quite numb the reason being all the hostility within the party has been closed and shut tight by the corruption and money they earned. The corruption has amassed at every level during this five years.

Coming to much hyped administration Schemes like Arogyasri, Jala Yagnam, 2 rupee rice are not corruption free. Arogyasri which insures all the people provide funds for critical illness and operations for the white card holders. Unfortunately this has come at the price of non-development of basic health care services. The government hospitals continue to get a step motherly treatment with falling quality, resources and facilities to treat everyone while the government funded private hospitals and feed them with exorbitant and possibly unwanted tests and diagnostic fees which went to the tax payers account.

The instances of diversion of the two rupee rice beyond the state borders with the enforcement people turning a blind eye to the same was common. The quality of the Rice was seemingly bad and quantity of 4kgs per month perhaps serves very little purpose in a big family of unfed.

Under the Jalayagnam scheme the canals restructuring only filled the pockets of politicians the contractors and engineers who worked on them whilst delivering substandard quality projects. While major of the projects still remain uncompleted the project connecting all the major rivers in the country was scrapped by the Union Government.

While all this went on there was high inflation sparked by petroleum but spread to essential food commodities which still remain high. The real estate prices has sky rocketed so much that its beyond the pockets of the common man to buy a decent house. Thanks to the cartel between the politicians, law-makers and the real estate developers. The government still seems to give attractive interest rate deduction schemes to lure home buyers and infuse life to the real estate developers instead of enabling the real Estate developers to drop the prices. I wonder if this government is for the people or for the Real Estate Agencies.


While all these devlopment seems to be taking place a much hyped and now controversial Praja Rajyam Party or Kingdom of People's emerged . This is headed by 54 year-old Padmabhushan Dr.Konidela Shiva Shankara Vara Prasad a.k.a Chiranjeevi (screen name) and operated by his rich uncle Allu Arvind (last produced film - Ghazini,Hindi). Though it has a slow and shaky start post its Mega Launch at Tirupati it has been widely strengthened by influx of seasoned Politicians from all the parties. The initial hype and propaganda doesn't seem to be holding the party for now. The politics, power Struggle within the party is comparable if not more than the already established parties. Tensions, political turmoil within the party has ensure that this was no different from the already existing parties. PRP runs on the star power of Chiranjeevi who seems to have drawn inspiration of likes of NTR on politics and wishes to replicate the same what Telugu Desam did in 1983. Unlike 1983 where NTR was viewed as unanimous choice beyond religion, class, creed and caste as a leader who would take them to growth, Chiranjeevi somehow doesn't live to the stature and charisma of NTR. Chiranjeevi would largely gains from a community of Kapu which he hails from and the Krishna/Godavari delta where the community is strong. There could be swing of fate away from congress as it stands to loose votes which were earlier came from Kapu community in this region. Loss of congress would be PRP's gain. The youth sentiment would also sligthly be pro-PRP as they still continue to idolise Chiranjeevi, Kalyan and Alu Arvind. The joining of Devender Goud with his Nava Telegana Party in PRP added more fire power for PRP with joining of Telengana BC votes. PRP with Devender Goud is much a stronger party than earlier and I too respect Devender Goud a lot !!

I personally feel that PRP is run mostly by Alu Arvind whose interests is in money making than in Social Service. He ideally would want to use the cloud of the government to engage in money laundering and hawala for his crores of Tollywood and real estate money hoarded else where. Chiranjeevi still would be no action cover boy of all this episode. I would rather be very happy with Chiranjeevi be elected and sit in opposition for 5 full years and learn the tricks of trade, prove his worth and dedication before staking a willful claim for the top position of the state. Rightfully I feel one should be compelled to come into social service or politics because someone has asked to one should come if one feels its his duty to serve the society and nation without expecting anything in return. The life of social service doesn't have takes and retakes and doesn't require Tagline like "Social Justice" "Social Telengana" words to appease and attract. It should be a party of action than party of taglines and words.


During this Time burecract turned Politican Jai Prakash Narayan coverted his Lok Satta to politcal party. A bit sad on the move but probably required at this moment seeing the unrealism, opportunism exhibited by the mainstream parties.

Its in a way good to see that parties like Chiranjeevi's PRP adapting shamelessly the main/core content and essence of Lok Satta idealogy with giving due acknowledgement. The fundamentalism and ideology of Lok Satta are quite unique, trend setting and highly growth oriented and majorly egalitarian. Out of 249 assembly seats its contesting it allotted mere 65 seats to Forward castes i.e. 26% while 184 seats where distributed among BCs and challenged classes (88 BCs, 42 SCs, 15 Sts, 10 minority, 28 women & 1 Physically Challenged). This probably overshadows the tall claims of PRP which says its given 104 tickets to backward classes and challenged classes. PRP is trying to cleverly mimic Lok Satta's ideology in every given form but with a different motive which is definetly not to give social justice or Social governance.

Personally there isn't much to comment on CPI/CPM or to that matter ever lying ever nagging ever opportunist TRS. BJP doesn't even seem to exist in the state and we are happy with that. For BJP we get to hear only Bandaru Dattatreya or an occasional Ch. Vidya Sagar Rao; else there is no impactable presence in Andhra Pradesh.

Anyways after such a long post my point is please people don't go for seasoned politicians and yes we are all sick of sorry stories and corruption and we are sick of new opportunists trying to come and join the mainstream politics.

Lets Vote !!! Lets come vote in big numbers !!! Vote for change and Vote for Growth !! Don't get bribed and lured by cheap politicians eventually one ends up bribing for the rest of the term. Aid democracy and heal the state of affairs of the country. Lets start by voting !! Be intelligent, choose intelligently for the future for yourself and for your family.

Friday, April 10, 2009

Vodafone GPRS Settings for PDA Mobiles

I recently got a PDA formself; Strangely enough while GPRS was working from my normal mobile I had issues with configuring the same on GPRS. I got an Vodafone activation done one time through the SMS and then called up Vodafone care 111. But to my surprise they said that PDA are not supported with Vodafone Live and I need to go for a 499/- Internet package. Baffled I gave up the idea, though I used to connect through my internet enabled laptop to connect to the internet.
While researching I found this on some forums which might help people like me to enable and configure your GPRS feature on your Vodafone connection. don't get fooled by the ready to help Customer support which never will provide support on this.
Use this simple settings and voilla there you are....
Account Name: Vodafone_gprs
Homepage: http://live.vodafone.in/
User Name: (no need)
Pass: (no need)
Access Point Settings:
Proxy: Enabled
Proxy Address: 10.10.1.100 Proxy Port: 9401
Its that simple...
So all of you HTC, ASUS, Palm and HP PDA mobile users hope this helps.

Note: The Proxy settings would prevent Internet connection through the PC (ActiveSync). So while connecting through ActiveSync uncheck the proxy and check it back if connecting back to WAP/GPRS.

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Keys, mouse, chips, webs, viruses......CiIlitetrate

Cilliterate....or Computer Illiterate
Yes you are if you failed to connect the above words.
Computer literacy can also refer to the comfort level someone has with using computer programs and other applications and technologies that are associated with computers.
My exposure to computers started quite early in my age. I had my own PC when I was in my 6th Standard thanks to my dad who envisioned that Technology is the future. I was only 11 years when I first got to work on a computer of my own. It was year 1992 and by those days standards I had a fairly fast and efficient system. The configuration of today's mobiles are better than my first PC. It was a
Intel 80286 (In an era of 64 bits 286 has had 7 predecesors to Todays P4/Athlons)
Running at 20 Mhz Speed (yes Mega Hertz was big in those days 1024 times lesser than that of todays)
1 MB Ram (we talk of 1 GB as miminmum today thats 1024 times lesser than todays capacity)
40 MB HDD
Display - MDA (Moncrome Display Array) - 14 inch B&W L&T Monitor
Sound card - Our only sounds we heard were beeps
123 Key - TVS Keyboard
Mouse - Never needed one
OS - MS DOS 5.00
Spread Sheet- Lotus Spread sheets
Word Processor - Word Star 4
Database - Fox Pro & DBase 4+
Languages - C, BASIC
Anti Virus - MSAV
DiskDrive - 5 1/4 Floppy Drives

This was the system I had and continue to have (of course its packed) as an antique since 1992 with a bundle of 5 1/4 and 3 1/2 inch floppies. The software which is stored in it is specific to that system and none of todays software runs on the system. I wanted to add some bit of interactivity to the system and install Windows 3.11 which used to run as a front end for DOS, but decided against it as it was too resource hungry for my system.The system then costed my dad a little over 30K rupees without monitor and printer (dot matrix).
All my initial days I learned and played on this system. I was envied by adults and kids alike. I was able to speak a language which many where not even aware off. My first computer was operational to the fullest till 1999. After 7 years it was replaced, I moved to adapt a non intel processor.
I got an AMD K6 in later 1999 (Pic - my cousin - with L&T Dotmatrix printer and K6 on Viewsonic). The system had 128MB RAM, with Windows 98 and 20 GB HDD and 400 Mhz (20 times faster than my older 286)with a 15" Viewsonic Monitor. I used this system during my engineering till 2004. This is system which provided me my first multimedia expereince and internet expereince. Those were the early days of internet and it was costly to have an internet connection. I remeber using various dial-up connection and due to my high internet usage at times our telephone bills used to run up quite high. My primary dial-up those days were Dish-net connection and occassional a Tata Nova. I used to borrow accounts to meet my craze those days. During my early days of internet I was hugely into intenet contests. Quite popular and an addict I was for Contests2win, Hungama.com and occasional MTV contests. I at one stage used to get gifts and memorobila on an weekly basis from these sites (mostly Hungama). Loved collecting points for playing contests and redeeming the same for some cheeky gifts. Approximate count of gifts I collected run in excess of 200 items.
Next I got an AMD Athlon 1800. It was a 1.6 Ghz processor with 384 MB RAM. I got it assembled at Parklane, Secunderabad before carrying it all the way to IIM-K. Incidently I ran Windows 95 on this system.This system I used for 2 years while I was in Kozhikode between 2004 and 2006, and later dumped it at K before returning back to Hyderabad in March 2006. Post which I continue to use my bro's AMD Athlon and my bro's Dell Inspiron laptop which he got it from US.
While in Genpact I was using the companies provided Dell Latitude D510 model. I felt this was the most robust and sturdiest of all Desktops and Laptops I ever got to use.
Moving from Hardware to Software I started with BASIC based programming and games like Prince of Persia, Where on Earth is Carmen Sandiego, Genghis Khan
From Banner Mania, Wolf Pack,Para Trooper, Packman, Test Drive to name a few. As years went by and technology improved I got newer games. I still remeber I used to steal a few bucks from my dad's change and save enough to buy one single game from a small computer shop (PARAS Computers) on the road connecting Mozamjahi Market and Koti. Each floppy game costed 20/- then. Much for privacy of today :).
Initial utilitis like Banner Mania and Paint pro were fun to work and impress the guests who came in. I also remeber we used some Basic based application to generate Astrology charts. It was so much fun those old days, for uniqueness is definetly something to cherish.
Today as I blog this I am amazed at the journey I made from 1992 to 2009. 17 Years is time taken, I have moved from a 80286 to a P4 mobile processor, from floppies to SD Micros, from PC Games to Playstation, from B&W monitors to 32" LCD's from beep speakers to 5.1 DTS Home theatre from a small selffocus cam to a Compact DigiCam . From Bannermania to Photoshop; from DOS to Windows Mobile; from PacMan to NFS; from text to HDDVD authoring, I feel I have come offage in technology. It's not that I thrive on getting the latest Gizmos, but addition happens automatically; If that technological tranformation is not happening am afraid to say that one is Technophobic and Cilliterate.
Yes there might be circles who differ on amount of adaption technology in daily life, lets not debate it today. Technology is part of parcel of modern day's life.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Espresso, Latte and Cappuccino Whats your flavour today

In my Office we have a couple of Vending machines; One of Cafe Coffee Days and one of Lipton's. The Lipton's gives out Malt, Bombay coffee, Chocolate, and Tea. CCD dispensor gives out a few varieities of Coffee. Espresso, Latte & Cappuccino. For a person who is not a big beverage drinker; Coffee for me was a plain cup of coffee Bru, Nescafe or Sunrise types. With the influx of Java greens and the CCDs and vending machines at office I did get to hear a bit of fancy roasts, flavored coffees, and custom blends from all over the world. Having discovered the names wanted to explore how each one was different, a bit of googling and enquiry at CCD helped me out.
What is an Instant Coffee?
Bru & nescafe are quick alternatives to our traditional filter coffee where the coffee seeds are roasted grinded and filter it to get a tasty decoction. Mixing sufficient milk and sugar mixing the same in davara-tumbler (the special cup saucer of TN), one can create a frothy kaapi too.

In instant coffee, to the powdered roasted Coffee beans Chicory is blended in. Chicory is a vegetable being cultivated mostly in Europe (Belgium) and Latin America. Roots of Chicory plants are dried, grinded and being consumed as substitute of coffee or mixed with coffee to make a bend. Aroma and test of any coffee will depend on the proportion of chicory in it.
What is Espresso?
Espresso is an Italian way of forcing hot water through slow-roasted, finely ground coffee beans. The result is a thick, intense drink which is popular in Italy.
In the U.S. it is more often the base for other coffee drinks such as:
Cappuccino: Espresso with some milk and a lot of milk foam, sometimes with cinnamon or cocoa powder sprinkled on top
Latte: Espresso with a lot of milk in it
Mocha: Latte with chocolate and (often) whipped cream on top
Americano: Espresso shot with enough hot water to fill the cup
Macchiato: Espresso shot with a small amount of frothed milk
For me at least the regular coffee (i.e.) Espresso tastes like burnt wood mixed in hot water so keep myself away from it. Prefer Cappuccino and mostly Latte.
Advantages of drinking coffee:
1. Coffee can increase the metabolism rate up to 30% .
2. Coffee with exercise when taking 300mg, averages a 20% increase in energy and fatigue, while burning fat increased 107% greater than without caffeine.
3. Caffeine in coffee keeps our brains alert and receptive of new information.
4. Regular consumption of coffee decreases the risk of type II diabetes and many other health risks.
5. Bru & Nescafe especially comes with nice free gifts! Jars and bowls
Disadvantages:
1. Coffee when consumed in excess can be addictive, stimulate, and a mood charger.
2. A large amount of caffeine consumed all at once can have a negative affect on blood sugar levels that influences fat burning that could change into storing fat.
3. Too much coffee over time can stain your teeth.
How Many Carbs and Calories Are in Coffee Drinks?
The nutritional information for coffee drinks that are mainly espresso and milk don’t vary that much, but depends on the additivies like sugar, whipped cream, and chocolate, there is more variation.
Cappuccino –
16 oz – 15 grams carb, 100-180 calories (more for half and half)
Latte –
16 oz – 21 grams carb, 160-260 calories
Mocha –
16 oz - 33-42 grams carb, 210-433 calories
Other flavorings can add varying amounts of carbohydrates and calories. Fancy drinks like caramel whip extravaganzas can add many more carbs and calories. Even flavored syrups take their toll. One “pump” of flavoring from syrups with sugar has about 5 grams of carb and 20 calories.
Whatever flavour, whatever blend, whatever method its made for a non-Addict like me, Coffee signfies two things, one to unwind and keep me alert at work when headache creeps in and secondly the Premium blend is a style statement and means to treat a small team or an intimate one. Hope you have a great Coffee day.

Monday, March 17, 2008

Bearish after the Bears collapse (The beginning of the end of dollar hegemony)

Credit Crunch fears sending markets for a spin downwards and investors sentiment round the world turned ziffy with the US Sub-prime credit situation claiming another victim. This time its
Bear Stearns; Founded in 1923 and employing some 15,500 people worldwide, Bear Stearns was one of the “big five” Wall Street investment banks. In 2005-2007, Bear Stearns was recognized as the “Most Admired” securities firm in Fortune magazine’s. The second largest US underwriter of mortgage bonds, With the de facto collapse of Bear Stearns, however, the housing and credit market collapse has claimed one of the titans of Wall Street.


Credit Bubble
The underlying problem is the vast credit bubble that was inflated on the basis of reckless and intrinsically unviable home loans and other forms of speculation, including leveraged buyouts and a vast expansion in unregulated credit markets that delivered unsustainably high returns on investment. The immense fortunes amassed by the uppermost echelons of the US population on the basis of such parasitic financial operations have created, as their consequence, a social and economic disaster of historical proportions, threatening tens of millions of Americans, and hundreds of millions more people around the world, with pauperization.

How it started for Bear Stearns ..
Last July, the collapse of two Bear Stearns hedge funds as a result of the bursting of the US housing bubble sparked a crisis of confidence in the credit system that has gathered steam and expanded in scope to threaten the viability of some of the biggest banks and financial institutions .
The explosive growth of the derivatives market, in which Bear Stearns and other brokers and banks are major participants, has heightened anxiety about so-called counterparty risk( fear that the bank on the other side of a trade will not be able to cover positions if need be). The CDS (credit default swaps) market, which has grown to a notional value of $US45 trillion, has yet to be tested by a major disruption. There has been a potential CDS counterparty problem where we have more buyers than qualified sellers. With Bear having such a large CDS counterparty position, one can't expect to have that $US45 trillion market come apart. Since late Thursday(13th March 2008), anyone looking to unwind a credit derivative position with Bear Stearns won't be able to, since no one wants to face the firm as a counterparty
Speculation about Bear Stearns problems gained momentum amid turmoil in the agency mortgage bond market on the back of the collapse of hedge fund Carlyle Capital Corporation in which Bear Stearns had a major exposure. Carlyle Capital Corporation, a $22 billion publicly traded investment fund controlled by the Carlyle Group, had beenone of the profitable and well-connected private equity firms in the US. CCC has been facing margin pressure and was unable to finance the trades. Once you have a run on the bank you are in a death spiral and your assets become worthless. The stock which once traded at 170$ levels had corrected to below 30$ and now its been valued around 2$,. At 30$ the stock is 60% below its book value of 80$. Re-winding back 8-years ago when ex-CEO Mr. James Cayne’s hinted — that he would only sell the firm for four times its book value — was even then a flight of financial fancy. Wall Street investment banks rarely command such a premium to their book value, given the inherent and unpredictable risks of their business. And this has been proven beyond doubt in the present days frenzy.

For now, the prospect of a new wave of consolidation in the financial services industry seems remote. That is because would-be acquirers and everyday investors alike have lost faith in the values that Wall Street firms are placing on their own assets. Credit ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings both slashed Bear's credit ratings to triple-B, near the bottom of the investment-grade ladder before junk, and Moody's Investors Service cut its rating to Baa1.

Question will be raised on the high leverage such companies have, Bear Sterns is among a highly leveraged company with 33:1 ratio in terms of leverage of Debt to equity. At such cruical moment Capital structure of the firm itself is to be challenged and cost of assets it has.

The Fed's Action of Friday (http://wsws.org/)
The Federal Reserve Board on Friday took emergency action to prevent the collapse of Bear Stearns, the fifth largest US investment bank and one of the world’s largest finance and brokerage houses.
Invoking a little-used provision added to the Federal Reserve Act in 1932, at the height of the Great Depression, the US central bank agreed to allow the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to insure an infusion of credit to Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase. Under the terms of the “secured loan facility,” to extend for up to 28 days, the risk of a default by Bear Stearns will be borne by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, not JP Morgan Chase. The latter will serve essentially as a conduit for the cash provided by the US central bank.
This mechanism was used because only commercial banks, so-called depository institutions, can borrow directly from the Fed’s discount window. Bear Stearns is not a depository bank, and hence the Fed was obliged to invoke a provision of the 1932 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act that applies when “unusual and exigent circumstances exist and the borrower is unable to secure adequate credit accommodations from other sources.”

Who's next ??
Today morning when the US markets opened, all the brokerages were sharply lower, with Goldman Sachs down 6%, Morgan Stanley off 8% and Merrill Lynch down 9%. Indeed, investors are taking a grim view of the prospects for other investment banks like Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. Next to Bear Stears, Lehman is the smallest and least diversified brokerage firm on Wall Street, so there are worries that it will be the next firm to come under attack as firms that trade with Lehman pull back in a bid to protect themselves.
Citigroup, one of the US's largest banks, is now trading below its book value. Lehman Brothers, at $39, is trading just below the book value it reported at the end of last year. This year, Bear’s stock is down 65 percent and Lehman’s has sunk 40 percent.
Indicative of the broader reverberations from the Bear Stearns collapse, the share price of Ambac Financial Group, the world’s second-largest bond insurer, fell 93%, on widespread fears that the company will not have sufficient capital to meet claims from its creditors.
And analysts are speculating that Lehman may not play a big enough role in the markets to justify a Fed-backed bailout like the one at Bear Stearns. And while Bear’s peers on Wall Street are not yet in such dire shape, they have surely accepted the reality of leaner times and lower valuations in the months to come.
Very true that this has been proven time again since the Great American Depresion and Oil Shake that the fact is thatBanks and brokerages are a house of cards built on the confidence of clients, creditors and counterparties; If one where to take chunks out of that confidence, things can go awry pretty quickly, pack comes crashing down.

Impact on India
The timing of the move made its urgency clear: If Bear could have held out until March 27, it could have borrowed directly from the Fed itself under a new program announced.
The maximum size of the loan is not predetermined, but is limited by how much collateral Bear Stearns can provide to satisfy the Fed’s requirements. The loan by no means assures Bear Stearns’s survival. More likely, it was granted in the hope that it would buy time for a more orderly disposition of the firm’s fate and head off a panic response by bankers and investors to its demise.
The impact on hedge funds dealing with the bank could be that those that rely on the bank to finance trading and hold securities would be stranded and could be looking to other banks for trading and financing. Bear Sterns has interests in more than 15 companies--from real estate, infrastructure, energy to capital goods. The investment bank has maximum exposure in RPG Transmission at 8.93 per cent, trading in the counter is suspended at the moment and on the lower side, 1.06 per cent in Hindustan Construction Company. Bear Stearn's has already sold off close to 900 (250 on Friday & 650 on Monday) crores of equity in the Indian markets, and in situation where the markets have so little cushioning to offer, the companies in which Bear Stearns had its interests in would go down along with its sell-off.

Bear Stearns forced to sell off assets at fire-sale prices to raise cash needed to meet creditors’ demands, the value of untold billions in assets held by other financial institutions would drop, leading to more margin calls from creditors, further institutional collapses, more panic selling of debt and securities—a vicious spiral to the bottom with the potential of a breakdown in the entire capitalist financial system. Brokers in India are already feeling the pain; The BSE benchmark Index Sensex witnessed its 2nd largest fall in its history recording a fall of 951 points due to the sell off. Investor sentiment (mine included) has been beaten down heavily and this will continue untill a few more institutions fall off.
Companies like India Bulls, Motilal Oswal, ShareKhan have had deep corrections with dropping trading volumes and huge market risk, this happend to be just a prelude of what will hit out markets.
All these developments and the impact of the same in terms of market reaction locally all prove that the So-called De-coupling is far from reality for the Indian markets as we continue to out perform in terms of fall we exhibit in comparision to markets globally.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

Lets Change the world


Every one of us must have heard in some form or the other about the Biblical story of Adam and Eve in Garden of Eden. This story is told in the book of Genesis, chapters 1, 2 and 3, with some additional elements in chapters 4 and 5.

God creates Adam from the dust of the earth and breathes life into him. Later, he makes Eve from Adam's rib, to keep company. The serpent tempts Eve into eating the forbidden fruit from the Tree of the Knowledge of Good and Evil, and she gives the fruit to Adam, too. God expels them both from the Garden of Eden and curses them to live a life of mortals. They have children, Cain, Abel, Seth, and others, who then populate the world. The serpent in Christian theology represents Satan, and the Fall establishes original sin. Muslims honor Adam as the first prophet.

Ok, why am I talking all this, the Original Sin of Man led to his expulsion from the Oasis of God. towards suffering and dishonour, but man of today I feel still continues to garner more and more sin on his forehead. Every biblical teaching, every verse in Quran, teachings of Budha, Holy scriptures of the Hindu's all talk about peace, harmony and co-existence. They all preach us a way of life, which is to set for us a divine path to Nirvana, to attain the highest-level of existence, but we over the years seem to be deteriorating for the worse. Every religion of the world has a dooms-day prediction in-built and what alls happening point us to that dooms-day scenario. The Christians would call it the Armagedon or the Judgement day, the Hindi term it as end of Yug or era. And almost enevitabaly claims a wash-out turn-off events on the dooms-day scenario.

Why is that we all seem to be staring at the barrel whats going wrong with this race and this era ?

The Kal Yug, ("Age of Kali", "age of vice"), is one of the four stages of development that the world goes through as part of the cycle of Yugas, as described in Hindu scriptures, the others being

  • Satya Yuga,
  • Treta Yuga
  • Dvapara Yuga.

Kali Yuga is associated with the apocalypse demon Kali, not be confused with the goddess Kālī, as these are unrelated words in the Sanskrit language. The "Kali" of Kali Yuga means "strife, discord, quarrel, or contention."

Todays world is a true reflection of all these. People might claim that the world is more orderly and less chaoitic than it was for many many years back. Is that true. A few years back wars used to happen in the Battle-fields at the front-lines, now where are those battle-lines. War, fighting continue on there rampage in their own back-yards for many many unfortunate familes. Poeple in civilised world and developed economies like the 3 monkeys know nothing. Civil-wars rampage many African countries threatening the once Land of Gods to extinction. The countries which are rich in natural heritage are robbed and stripped naked-off their natural resources and treasurs under the name of globalisation, world economy, world trade leaving the local population discplaced and cluessless. Countries like India, China which are supposed to be the cultural epicenters among the world Civilisations are falling apart from their cultural heritage which they are proud-off on similar lines of an Aztec or similar native American tribes whose culture went extinct with arrival of explorers and colonies.

World today is becoming smaller and getting well connected. But the dangers attached to this are also becoming much clearer, easy access of information, easy exhange of cultures, ideas and thoughts. It sounds good doesn't it but what we don't realise is we are slowly but surely leading to an erosion of our core values and traditions. Many today if asked how is culture different from tradition would have no answer, in the same way a few years from now difference between different cultures would be lost.

Clear and present Danger

Balance of Power -

Every era, every period of time the polical certainity or the uncertainity lies on the balance of power that plays around in the environment. As for the Newton's law "For every action there would be an equal and an opposite recation". Never in the world there was a time that this didn't happen and when it doesn't happen it reminds of a silence before the storm. And always competition is always good. Even God has Competition doesn't he Satan in Christianity, Rakhasas in Hinduism right. Its important for this balance of power to exist, else the void left behind would be soon be claimed by elements of Greed and opportunists. Take the instance of end of Cold War, with no power play in existence, US might is exhibited everywhere. Afghanistan, Iraq and what all to follow ?? Vietnam, Korea, Central America have all been in wars and after end of it they still recovering.

Afganistan today after 2001-2002 outbust of Taliban is a hot-bed of Drug and Narcotic trade. One-third of the world Poppy plantation are illegally cultivated here to create Heroin, Cocainne and supply to the rest of the world. On exit of Russian, and takeover of Taliban, the Cocainne production was contained to a large extent due to the hardcore religious fundamentalism of Taliban, which in some way was good for the Taliban. But after the Taliban where thrown out they now have resorted to Cocainne trade to fund their activities and sustain themselves. Narcotics are in high demand in Western countries, and thats what they wanted to destroy using the new found weapon. The trade routes are through the Irag, Pakistan, to Africa, Mexico and few former Soviet countries. The cases of drug abuse have been on a rise and set to consume atleast half of the young Western population in the next Decade if situation doesn't improve.

As this wasn't sufficient slowly but surely the developing economies are falling a prey to the same mistakes the Western ecomies have made, Drug abuse in countries like Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India is also on a steep rise. Unlike the western economies its the man on the street who are getting ot lay their hands on these dangerous substances.

Cocainne, Heroin might not be the only drugs around a new cheap and more powerful (dangerous) Meth(methamphetamine - chemical used in pharma products) is on prowl. Discovered in Japan for many years it had no use till it was pressed into millitary service to keep its soldiers awake and high on energy continously for long hours. Its widely used during the Japanese kamikaze suicidal attacks. Its currently used by lots of labourers and sex workers in Thailand and is commonly known as Yaba there. Meth is more scenical and leads to more fatalities due to sheer presence and availability on the streets. Its effect last longer and kick stronger than that of Coke, sometimes atleast 10 times of that. A person stays high for more than12 hrs on the usage of the substance. The chemical compound clones the naturally occuring chemical in the brains nerve endings called the dopamine, this replicate compound increases the nerve firings by atleast 10 times, giving a high and feeling of high energy flow for prolonged period of time. Even more dangerous is the free availability and production of this in a backyard using few indegenious things and some headache medicines.

Hunger for high, hunger to reach to state of extreme senses, that people get into destroys the very being in humans the Spirit. The Spirit of life of people who get into this addiction are lost. People are stripped off everything they ever had. This for many looks like a true triumph of Satan(atleast on the way) for its going to get its Souls to take control of and rule the world. Narcotics, drugs and substance abuse is a bigger and know evil we all need to unite against and fight. There is no stopping on count of many brothers, sisters, sons and daughters of men are lost, how many lives get effected down the value chain right from the farmer and his family who makes the living on Poppy alone to the middleman who assumes risk of smuggling in the material and the underworld criminals who combines with a friendly neighbourhood boy to supply his material on the streets, schools, colleges and clubs round the world. As syndicate grows, it feeds innuberable branches of the value chain making it harder and harder to set loose and destroy this tree.

Another recreational drug, LSD has remained popular among certain segments of society. Traditionally, it has been popular with high school and college students and other young adults. LSD also has been integral to the lifestyle of many individuals who follow certain rock music bands. Code named Acid, its availability and popularity is on rise in India too.

In a few Eurpoean countries, legal drug usage centres have been made available where hygenic facilites, needles are provided and medical assistance made available to curtail and keep track fo drug overdosage which potentially could lead to death. These Euporean countries neither have money nor resources to contain the trade and illicit usage of the narcotics, leading to legalising the usage and avoid the backlash of its citizens incase of failure of the enforcement agencies.

Ephedrine and pseudoephedrine are increasingly sucking our children into a black hole of addiction. For those who don’t know, pseudoephedrine is the decongestant commonly found in many cold medicines such as Sudafed and Nyquil. It is also a key ingredient used to make methamphetamine(Meth), a highly addictive stimulant that has become the No. 1 priority for law enforcement in many American states. While 80 percent of the drug is produced by illegal labs in Mexico and the Central Valley of California, teenagers looking for ways to pay for their addictions, or just to make a quick buck, have been making methamphetamine in home laboratories from the cold medicine, using commonly available ingredients to cook crstal meth.What’s such a powerful drug doing in cold medicine? Manufacturers began using it after other formulations were banned or were found to be dangerous. Ephedrine, a chemically related drug, was commonly found in herbal sports products until 2003 when the FDA banned it. At the time, the supplement industry cried foul because the drug’s cousin was still in cold medicine. Not sure why the FDA thinks pseudoephedrine is any safer, though it does work for many adults. Stricter controls have to be enforced before it snowballs into a bigger evil.

Whatever the drug may be, whatever place of origin might be, legal or illegal the narcotics trade and usage all-over the world is on a rise, and with the pace at which globalisation is happening these drugs will only have new takers, new shores to touch and new trade routes established. Unless this ever flourishing trade is stopped and citizens of the world unite and be responsible to themselves and world we are slowly but surely headed towards self-destruction or the dooms-day scenario. World economies will tumble as more and more of its youth and Gen-X fall victims to this potent drugs, slowly but surely the gloom will engulf the world if not taken care of.

A concious effort worldwide is the only way to bring this down, For sometime its prudent enough to pull down the greed, differences, selfishness among us to fight for a cause, a cause of humanity, a fight to protect ourselves from self-destruction and Judgement day. Things can't be achieved in the four closed walls of a church or long cresent top Minarets of the Mosque, its inside us, its our will to change the world. We need to make an effort to be sensitive to needs of the world. This is a lovely planet and as a responsible inhabitants of this place we need to fulfill our duties lest the back lash of forces of nature would hard and long for us all to repent.


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